MIAMI -- Hurricane Isaias. is expected to reach the western Florida Panhandle coast this evening with life threatening winds.

Storm surge warnings are up along the entire Panhandle Gulf Coast including Panama City.

Six to nine foot storm surge id forecast in Pensacola Bay,... 4-7 feet in the Panama City area.

Meantime, a tornado watch is in effect until 8 pm central, 9 pm eastern for all Florida counties west of the Suwannee River to the Alabama line.

Here is the full 1 p.m. central time update from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN

Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 12A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026

100 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF

COAST...

...PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND

DEVASTATING WINDS SHOULD BE COMPLETED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...28.4N 87.2W

ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA

ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS

* East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Suwannee River to Yankeetown, FL

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For

a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons

located within these areas should take all necessary actions to

protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and

property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the

National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,

available at hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located

near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 87.2 West. Isaias is moving

toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This motion is

expected to continue through this evening, followed by a northward

motion on Saturday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to

approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast this afternoon and make

landfall within the warning area this evening.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft

indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195

km/h) with higher gusts. Isaias is a category 3 hurricane on the

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are

possible through this afternoon, but Isaias is expected to be at or

near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall this evening.

Weakening is expected beginning tonight after Isaias makes landfall,

and the storm is likely to become post-tropical by late Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205

miles (335 km). A wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) was recently

reported at Dauphin Island, Alabama.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

AL/FL Border to Grayton Beach, FL...6-9 ft

Grayton Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-7 ft

Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...4-6 ft

Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-6 ft

Steinhatchee River, FL to Suwannee River, FL...3-5 ft

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Dauphin Island, AL...3-5 ft

Lower Mobile Bay...3-5 ft

Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft

Upper Mobile Bay...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of

onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and

dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative

timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over

short distances. For information specific to your area, please see

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,

please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,

available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning

this evening into early Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are

now beginning. Hurricane-force winds are expected to spread inland

as far as 100 miles from the coast into southern Alabama. Tropical

storm conditions are beginning in the tropical storm warning areas.

RAINFALL: Through the weekend, Isaias is expected to produce

rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. Localized

totals up to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding

across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend.

Across much of the remainder of the Southeast, rainfall amounts of 2

to 5 inches are expected. Localized higher amounts up to 10 inches

are possible, especially across the Southern Appalachians and

coastal Carolinas.

Flash and urban flooding is possible across the region, with

considerable impacts likely across much of southern Alabama and the

Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia. River flooding is also

expected, some of which could be significant.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with

Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall

Graphic available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk

graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

TORNADOES: A tornado risk will begin this afternoon and continue

tonight in coastal areas of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and

southern Georgia. The tornado threat will continue Saturday across

parts of eastern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the

Carolinas.

SURF: Swells from Isaias are affecting the western and northern

portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and are spreading northward toward

the Gulf Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening

surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your

local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found

at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$

Forecaster Berg

Photo: Canva

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